Climate Change intro

01/05/2010

CLIMATE CHANGE – Introduction

This section of Calder’s Updates is unavoidably a battleground, but within reason it will stick to the physics and dodge the propaganda that surrounds climate research.

Headings in this section

  • News and Comments watching developments
  • The Svensmark Hypothesis outlining the science
  • Falsification Tests digging deeper into the physics
  • Updating The Chilling Stars with evolving stories

In 1997 The Manic Sun by Nigel Calder was the first book to describe a new wonder of Nature – namely Henrik Svensmark’s discovery that the effect of cosmic rays on clouds amplifies the influence of the Sun on the Earth’s climate. Ten years of progress with the physics led to a second book The Chilling Stars in 2007, co-authored with Svensmark.I was also a script consultant to Mortensen Film for the TV programme about Svensmark’s work, “The Cloud Mystery”.

Despite plenty of time to re-consider the story, if it had turned out to be foolish, the evidence looks better and better as the years pass. Yet most climate scientists still ignore or reject Svensmark’s findings from observations of the real world, physics experiments, and theoretical analyses. Scoffing or vehement objections come from supporters of the man-made global warming hypothesis, who realise that the Svensmark hypothesis offers the strongest challenge to the assumptions in their climate models that predict climatic catastrophe.

The customary give-and-take arguments among experts, about which scientific theory fits the facts better, would be fair enough. But since climate physics became a political issue, the involvement of governments, funding agencies, scientific journals and the media in propagating a particular view of climate change has made rational debate difficult. Here’s a comment from Svensmark in an interview by Discover magazine, July 2007.

Question: In 1996, when you reported that changes in the Sun’s activity could explain most or all of the recent rise in Earth’s temperature, the chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel [on Climate Change] called your announcement “extremely naive and irresponsible”. How did you react?

Svensmark: I was just stunned. I remember being shocked by how many thought what I was doing was terrible. I couldn’t understand it because when you are a physicist, you are trained that when you find something that cannot be explained, something that doesn’t fit, that is what you are excited about. If there is a possibility that you might have an explanation, that is something that everybody thinks is what you should pursue. Here was exactly the opposite reaction. It was as though people were saying to me, “This is something that you should not have done.” That was very strange for me, and it has been more or less like that ever since.

To me (Calder) as a reporter of major discoveries that went on to win Nobel prizes in several different fields, the contrast between flimsy conjecture and creative brainpower backed by real evidence is fairly obvious. Being a generalist, rather than a specialist reporter of climate science, also helps to keep me objective, but I’m not inexperienced or ignorant in this field. It can be irritating when “warmist” journalists and campaigners with no relevant training of their own try to question my competence. Hey, I’ve even published a couple of formal scientific papers of my own.

Calder’s writing and editing on climate-related subjects

2007 (updated 2008) book: The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change. Joint author with Henrik Svensmark

2003 book: Magic Universe: The Oxford Guide to Modern Science. Topics Include Biosphere from space, Carbon cycle, Climate change, Cosmic rays, Cryosphere, Earthshine, Earth system, El Niño, Ocean currents, Solar wind, and Volcanic explosions

1999 scientific paper: ‘The Carbon Dioxide Thermometer’, Energy & Environment, 1999, Vol. 10, pp. 1-18, on how CO2 seems to respond to climate change rather than the other way around.

1997 book: The Manic Sun: Weather Theories Confounded about the Sun & climate, including Svensmark’s initial discovery about cosmic rays and clouds

1991 book and related TV series: Spaceship Earth about Earth observation, Including space observations of clouds, storms, temperatures, ice, oceans, bioproductivity, land use, and deforestation.

1990 book: Scientific Europe (editor, for Foundation Scientific Europe). It includes climate articles by Hermann Flohn, Bert Bolin, Paul Crutzen, and Lennart Bengtsson.

1983 book: Timescale: An Atlas of the Fourth Dimension. Among many other topics it traces climate change from the first ice ages 2300 million years ago to the Little Ice Age ending in 1850.

1974 book and related 2-hour TV programme: The Weather Machine. These included the first public reports of the confirmation of the Milankovitch ice-age hypothesis. Participants on TV include Hubert Lamb, Nicholas Shackleton, John Imbrie, Willi Dansgaard, George Kukla, Syukuro Manabe and Bert Bolin.

1974 scientific paper: ‘The Arithmetic of Ice Ages’, Nature, Vol. 252, pp. 216-18, with the first formal confirmation of the Milankovitch Effect. (Done with a pocket calculator, to legitimize what we were saying in The Weather Machine.)

1973 book: Nature in the Round: A Guide to Environmental Science (editor). Includes articles on climate change by L.P. Smith and Grahame Clark.

1968 book: Unless Peace Comes (editor). Includes Gordon MacDonald on weather and climate modification as weapons of war

1965 book: The World in 1984 (editor, for New Scientist). Among about 100 commissioned 20-yr forecasts, contributions on weather & climate came from Graham Sutton, Fred Singer, D.A. Davies & Roger Revelle

Calder has often spoken about climate change in lectures and on TV and radio, including an interview (2007) for The Great Global Warming Swindle, WagTV’s production for Channel 4. He has published articles on the subject since 1961.


About The Chilling Stars

01/05/2010

About The Chilling Stars by Henrik Svensmark & Nigel Calder

As Svensmark’s theory of cosmic rays, clouds, and climate penetrates a wide range of sciences, I suspect that specialists in various fields will profit from this plain-language introduction as much as general readers.” So ends the foreword to The Chilling Stars, written by Prof. Eugene Parker of Chicago, who also recalls how “eminent referees” opposed the publication of his own discovery of the solar wind, half a century earlier.

The Good Book Guide commented on The Chilling Stars: “If you are concerned by the doomsday scenarios regarding runaway climate change, then this alternative view of why the climate is warming will be of great interest.”

The Times of London described the book as “The new totem of the climate-change sceptics.”

Editions and translations

In English: UK etc. (Icon), Canada (Icon) and USA (Totem)

The Chilling Stars – A New Theory of Climate Change 2007

The Chilling Stars – A Cosmic View of Climate Change 2008 (with updating Postscript) illustrated above.

Danish translation Klima og Kosmos(Gads Forlag)

German translation Sterne Steuern Unser Klima(Patmos Verlag)

Dutch translation Kosmisch Klimaat(Veen Magazines)

Swedish translation De Kylande Stjärnorna (Anarchos Forlag)

Hebrew translation כוכבים קרירים(Am Oved)

Japanese translation    (Kouseisha)

Russian translation    Леденящие звезды. Новая теория глоб. изм. климата / Chilling stars. A new theory of Globe. rev. Climate Леденящие звезды. Новая теория глоб. изм. климата (Lomonosov)

Main contents of The Chilling Stars 2008 edition

Foreword by Eugene Parker vii

Overview 1

1 A lazy Sun launches iceberg armadas 11

2 Adventures of the cosmic rays 35

3 A shiny Earth is cool 63

4 Getting piggy over the stile 99

5 The dinosaurs’ guide to the Galaxy 132

6 Starbursts, tropical ice and life’s changing fortunes 156

7 Children of the supernovae? 180

8 The agenda for cosmoclimatology 204

9 Postscript 2008 – Carbon dioxide is feeble 231

Sources for individuals quoted 251

Scientific papers 257

Link to Icon Books UK, primary publisher http://www.iconbooks.co.uk/

Buy The Chilling Stars online

In English

UKAmazonhttp://www.amazon.co.uk/Chilling-Stars-New-Theory-Climate/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1203616546&sr=1-1

USA Amazonhttp://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-2nd-Cosmic-Climate/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1203616818&sr=1-2

CanadaAmazonhttp://www.amazon.ca/Chilling-Stars-Henrik-Svensmark/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1203618178&sr=1-2

FranceAmazonhttp://www.amazon.fr/Chilling-Stars-Cosmic-Climate-Change/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=english-books&qid=1268234153&sr=8-3

GermanyAmazonhttp://www.amazon.de/Chilling-Stars-Theory-Climate-Change/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books-intl-de&qid=1268233902&sr=8-1

JapanAmazonhttp://www.amazon.co.jp/Chilling-Stars-Cosmic-Climate-Change/dp/1840468661/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=english-books&qid=1268234523&sr=8-3

DenmarkSaxohttp://www.saxo.com/dk/item/henrik-svensmark-the-chilling-stars-paperback-2.aspx?searchkeyword=Svensmark&searchcategoryid=5197&searchurl=%2fsearch%2fsearch.aspx%3fkeyword%3dSvensmark%26categoryid%3d5197%26pagemodule%3dbooks

Norway Norlihttp://www.norli.no/SamboWeb/produkt.do?produktId=292248

SwedenBokiahttp://www.bokia.se/bok/9781840468663/the-chilling-stars-henrik-svensmark-nigel-calder/

In Danish

Denmark Saxohttp://www.saxo.com/dk/item/klima-og-kosmos-haeftet.aspx?searchkeyword=Svensmark&searchcategoryid=5197&searchurl=%2fsearch%2fsearch.aspx%3fkeyword%3dSvensmark%26categoryid%3d5197%26pagemodule%3dbooks

In German

Germany Amazonhttp://www.amazon.de/Sterne-steuern-unser-Klima-Erderw%C3%A4rmung/dp/3491360129

Austria Amazonhttp://www.amazon.de/gp/product/1840468661/ref=s9_simh_gw_p14_i3?pf_rd_m=A1IDDPBG1NC5TQ&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=0RWE0NH4KG39A2S5A031&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=463375193&pf_rd_i=301128

JapanAmazonhttp://www.amazon.co.jp/Sterne-steuern-Klima-Theorie-Erderwaermung/dp/3491360129/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=english-books&qid=1268234523&sr=8-2

In Dutch

NetherlandsVeen Magazineshttp://www.veenmagazines.nl/00/vm/nl/23/product/498/Kosmisch_klimaat.html

In Swedish

SwedenBokiahttp://www.bokia.se/bok/9789197705912/de-kylande-stjarnorna-svensmark-henrik-calder-nigel/

In Japanese

Japan Kouseisha (via Google Translate) http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dkouseisha%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26sa%3DX%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-GB:official%26nfpr%3D1%26biw%3D1059%26bih%3D498%26prmd%3Divns&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=ja&u=http://www.kouseisha.com/01_astronomy/1213_2.html&usg=ALkJrhija4xDipDRbXrhF7VI5RnKs-8SbQ

In Russian

Russia Lomonsov http://www.lomonosov-books.ru/ledenyashie_zvezdy.html

USA Setbook http://www.setbook.org/books/1000489.html


About The Manic Sun

01/05/2010

Explaining where this book about the solar influence and the cosmic ray connection fits into the climate change story

About The Manic Sun: Weather Theories Confounded

Here, in plain language, is the story of the battle between the solar theory and the greenhouse theory.” So read part of the blurb for my book The Manic Sun, published by Pilkington Press in 1997. It continued: “Knud Lassen, Eigil Friis-Christensen and Henrik Svensmark, alone in Copenhagen, took on a global regiment of supercomputer operators. After years of disparagement the Danes have, for the time being, won the fight.”

“The solar-terrestrial Vikings” Friis-Christensen, Svensmark & Lassen. Photo: Kirsten Fich Pedersen for The Manic Sun

My first contact with Friis-Christensen had been five years earlier while working on a TV script about the Sun for the European Space Agency. Together with Lassen, Friis-Christensen had published in Science in 1991 a report that linked the changing temperature of the Northern Hemisphere to the length of the sunspot cycles – shorter cycles meaning warmer weather. It was powerful evidence for a solar influence on the climate but the puzzle remained, how did the Sun do it?

In 1996, in Denmark on completely different business, I telephoned Friis-Christensen to see how he was getting on with his climate story. There was someone he’d like me to meet, he said. This was Svensmark, who next day divulged to me, in confidence, the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover. As soon as I was back in England I contacted Alec Jolly for the Pilkington Press and the commissioning, writing and publication of The Manic Sun went very rapidly, though not so fast as to break any secret.

In the years that followed, thoughts about updating The Manic Sun kept nagging, but by 2006 the Svensmark hypothesis had progressed so much that that only a new book would do. Icon Press took it on and the outcome was The Chilling Stars jointly authored by Svensmark and me.

A questioner once asked me after a lecture if I’d change much in The Manic Sun, I said No, nothing. It remains a good record of thought processes in the 1990s, including my rather naïve optimism about the speed of impact of Svensmark’s discovery. But I did admit that maybe the title was wrong. While two manic phases of solar magnetic behaviour explained most of the global warming of the 20th Century, by time the book came out global warming was coming to an end, because the Sun had gone into a depressive mood. But that was with hindsight, and in any case The Lazy Sun might win no prizes as a title.

Comment on The Manic Sun

While the `greenhouse theory’ is more strongly supported by science, the rival solar theory has many statistics in its favour. … Its subtitle is “Weather Theories Confounded”, and indeed a good deal of the book is devoted to arguing against the theories of greenhouse gases and global warming. But it is what Calder sees as the political manipulation of scientists that provokes his strongest reactions. William Hartston The Independent

You can buy The Manic Sun at:

UK: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Manic-Sun-Weather-Theories-Confounded/dp/1899044116

US:: http://www.amazon.com/Manic-Sun-Weather-Theories-Confounded/dp/1899044116

In Danish Den Maniske Sol: http://www.boghuset.dk/boghuset/bghxtproduct/view/full/168439

In Dutch De Grillige Zon: http://www.boekbesprekingen.nl/cgi-bin/boek.cgi?boek=1157341

In German Die Launische Sonne: http://www.amazon.de/Die-launische-Sonne-Widerlegt-Klimatheorien/dp/3925725318


About The Cloud Mystery

01/05/2010

About The Cloud Mystery

Since 1998 the Danish film producer/director Lars Oxfeldt Mortensen has filmed the work of Henrik Svensmark and his team repeatedly, even when no programme was in production, to build up a remarkable historical record of discovery in progress. Svensmark has appeared in two resulting Mortensen TV programmes:

  • The Climate Conflict, about the role of the Sun in climate change, 2001
  • The Cloud Mystery, about the effect of cosmic rays on clouds and climatic history, 2008. (Nigel Calder was script consultant.)

Mortensen Film’s description of The Cloud Mystery

Svensmark views low clouds from a mountain in Tenerife

‘Our clouds take their orders from the stars,’ says the Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark. That’s the amazing and provocative discovery reported here. Most experts thought the idea was crazy.

The film records ten years of effort by the small team in Copenhagen that, in the end, solved the mystery of how the Galaxy and the Sun interfere in our everyday weather.

It’s provocative because Dr Svensmark’s revelations challenge the belief of most climate theorists that carbon dioxide has been the main driver of global warming. As a result he has faced never-ending opposition.

But strong support for the cosmic view of climate change comes from astronomer Nir Shaviv and geologist Jan Veizer. In the film they tell how the Galaxy has governed the Earth’s ever-changing climate over 500 million years.

The Cloud Mystery is aimed at a wide audience. Astonishing pictures from our Galaxy, the Sun, and cloud formations are mixed with spectacular animations to simplify the science. Comments by astronomers, geologists and climate experts convey their sense of adventure, and give scientific weight to the discoveries presented. The audience is taken on a trip around the world, where scientists from Denmark, Israel, Canada, the USA, and Norway contribute to this exciting story.

Linking all the discoveries is the non-stop rain of cosmic rays – energetic particles from exploded stars that battle with the Sun’s magnetic field to reach the Earth. Central in the story is an experiment in a Copenhagen basement. It showed how cosmic rays help to make chemical specks in the air on which water drops condense to make clouds.

The story concludes that clouds are the main driver of climate change on Earth.

The documentary follows Henrik Svensmark in his struggle to find the physical evidence of a celestial climate driver. The film demonstrates that science can be a rough place to be if you are in opposition to the established “truth”.

The Cloud Mystery (52-minutes) was co-produced with Arte France and has been distributed for broadcasting to eleven countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Israel and Iran. Efforts to place it with a UK broadcaster have been unsuccessful so far.

Latest broadcasts: 2 April 2010 Germany ARTE 21:45 France ARTE 22:05

Buy The Cloud Mystery DVD http://thecloudmystery.com/The_Cloud_Mystery/Get_the_DVD.html

Preview clip http://thecloudmystery.com/The_Cloud_Mystery/Introduction.html

Some scenes in the film can be see on ClimateClips http://climateclips.com/

The Cloud Mystery website http://thecloudmystery.coml

Mortensen Film website, with contact details http://mortensenfilm.dk/

Mortensen’s ClimateClips http://climateclips.com/


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