Hoodwinked by Berkeley Earth

Climate Change – Notes and Comments

Propaganda Tito style

My previous post was too polite about Berkeley Earth. I’d not figured out Richard Muller’s game. The mainstream media have have portrayed him as a repentant climate sceptic who has wonderful new evidence confirming man-made global warming. To see how the story is playing, look for Richard Muller Berkeley on Google News (139 reports and counting).

Normally I try to stick to the science, without being naïve about the politics. Posted earlier on this blog is the text of a talk I gave called “Global Warming is Just Propaganda”, which you’ll find here https://calderup.wordpress.com/2010/06/07/tradecraft-of-propaganda/



It compares the behaviour of the warmists with the tradecraft of propaganda during the Second World War. And the latest bout from Berkeley and the media reminds me, belatedly, of a manipulation of British propaganda in the Balkans in the early 1940s. For global warming read Stalinism and (at the risk of grossly overstating his importance) for Richard Muller read Tito.

Hoodwinking Churchill: Tito’s Great Confidence Trick, by the TV producer and military historian Peter Batty, was published earlier this year. Helped by a Communist mole filtering messages in the British team in Cairo, Tito fooled the West into thinking that he was the hero of the fight against the Italian and German forces in Yugoslavia. In fact he was subverting other guerrilla bands, doing deals with the Germans, and keeping his forces safe for a postwar Communist takeover of Yugoslavia. As Batty relates, Tito secured his 35-year dictatorship by butchering the non-Communist guerrillas who had been the real fighters in the occupied Balkans.

When Richard Muller, leader of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) project, gave testimony to the US Congress back in March, he called for the creation of an ARPA-like agency for climate issues. ARPA, more correctly nowadays called DARPA, is the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a mighty organization with a $3 billion budget. Climate ARPA (CARPA?) might offer a promising niche for a 67-year-old astrophysicist.

But if that’s the aim, catastrophic man-made global warming must stay high on the political agenda. How better to go about making sure about that than to call yourself a sceptic, just as Tito pretended to be on Winston Churchill’s side. When the time came to show himself in his true colours Tito was celebrated in the Communist world. Similarly Muller has become an instant hero for the warmists.

Scientifically grotesque was the blurring in the Berkeley press release, as well as in the media, of the meaning of Muller’s main graph, shown in my previous post. Invited to comment by New Scientist, I said:

What do they mean by ‘global warming is real’? The graph of global land temperature changes associated with BEST’s announcement neatly confirms by their independent method that the warming stopped about 15 years ago. The Sun’s recent laziness has apparently cancelled any effect of ever-increasing man-made greenhouse gases.”

The interviewer commented:

I take your point about the reduced warming trend over the last 15 years, but this study is focused on the long-term warming trend which covers a century. How do you account for this long-term warming trend?”

My reply (which wasn’t reported by New Scientist) was:

Increased activity of the Sun, of course, from 1950 to the early 1990s as signalled most strikingly by the decline in ionizing cosmic rays at the Earth’s surface. See the red curve (ion chamber) in the attached figure.”

This is a coloured version of a graph in Henrik Svensmark, Physical Review Letters, 81, 5027-30,1998.

The message about Muller in the media, that “the science is settled (again)”, is completely at odds with the evidence.


Hoodwinking Churchill: Tito’s Great Confidence Trick, by Peter Batty, Shepheard Walwyn (London) 2011.


13 Responses to Hoodwinked by Berkeley Earth

  1. Kate RC says:

    So clear and succint, as always. Thankyou Nigel.
    Let’s hope Mr Muller realises the error of his spouting/reading his own data, before he makes himself look any more foolish.

  2. Nigel Calder. please visit my website. All the proofs are there, there was no warming in the early 90’s, there is no cooling now. You have done a great research; but sunspots don’t produce GLOBAL warming; they don’t influence the climate. I have real proofs. They replaced the phony GLOBAL warming with climate change; because climate never stops changing = they can’t go wrong. But they have gone wrong in one thing: they didn’t know that: Tito’s solder has the real solid proofs, that can be proven beyond any reasonable doubt: http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com I haven’t masses of articles, but if the society knows everything, from the first sentence to the last what is on my website – Kyoto Protocol would have being history in few months – many of the protagonist would end up in jail. As long as the Skeptics use sunspots and similar – Warmist will not spit the dummy / they feel safe. They know that sunspots affect Brazil and Australian desert the same; but completely different climate = as long as the Skeptics stumble in a dark… Will not, if you help me to present the real proofs, PLEASE!!!

  3. Luboš Motl says:

    Dear Nigel, a nice analogy. Unfortunately, in Czechoslovakia, you could find numerous Tito-like figures in this sense. 😉

    The Berkeley Earth project was organized by the Novim Group


    and I agree with Marc Morano that the predetermined goal of the group is geoengineering, see e.g.


    This may pretty much determine or at least constrain everything else. It’s clear from Muller’s WSJ article and other places that he is personally responsible for misinterpreting of the results; it’s not just the evil journalists who did so.

    All the best

  4. Max_b says:

    I’m really not sure how another dataset of land surface temperature anomalies adds anything new to our understanding of this subject.

    The only thing from the BEST study I have noticed worthy of comment, is when you split out all the datasets, BEST really doesn’t correlate with the others at all well after 1998:

    I watched a video presentation from Muller given in September last year, http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UcqbTRTZoGU he comes across as a bit grandiose, and frankly I don’t understand his logic:

    11:45 “…the dangerous thing is that global warming is on track, and the theory [AGW] is being verified…”

    21:30 “… I suspect the reason it’s [global temps over the last 13 years] not going up is because of low solar activity…”

  5. […] “Hoodwinked by Berkeley Earth” by Nigel Calder, October 22, 2011. […]

  6. […] Hoodwinked by Berkeley Earth – Propaganda Tito style My previous post was too polite about Berkeley Earth. I’d not figured out Richard Muller’s game. The mainstream media have have portrayed him as a repentant climate sceptic who has wonderful new evidence confirming man-made global warming. To see how the story is playing, look for Richard Muller Berkeley on Google News (139 reports and counting). (Nigel Calder’s Updates) […]

  7. Orson Olson says:

    Max_b says of Muller: “frankly I don’t understand his logic:”
    because it appears contradictory.

    Not to mention prejudicial, given these BEST reports.

    Muller seems untroubled by alienating all goodwill by skeptics.

    Meanwhile, the only leading skeptic remaining friends towards Muller is Steve McIntyre. McIntyre’s take remains tender.

    Of the two National Academy chairs serving on the Hockey Stick panel of 2006 – Gerald North of Texas A & M University and Muller from UC – Berkeley – only the later has been mindful of constructive criticism.

    But it now appears the period of construction” is over. Time to get ACTIVIST!

    How sad that his early hope of redeeming science for climate is now over. We will have to put up with more preening, egoistic reports, just like the IPCC – only now descended to little Hitlers.

    It wold be BEST to simply start over by getting rid of the all, starting with the IPCC itself.

  8. Br Cornelius says:

    Paranoid ranting freak.
    Funny to behold

    • Warmist believe 90% in GLOBAL warming; fake Skeptics believe 101% in global warming. The truth: zero global warming – climate never stops changing. Some places changes for better, some for worse. Parts of the planet can get warmer than normal; instantly other parts get colder.

      Usually, over the land gets warmer > air over the land expands > troposphere bulges into the stratosphere > intercepts extra coldness, that coldness falls down to the ground to equalize – by the time it falls down; because of the fast spinning of the planet eastwards + horizontal winds – that extra coldness get spread west of land – west of land is the sea. Needs for every degree of extra warming on the land to get colder above the sea BY HALF A DEGREE, to equalize; because above the sea is twice as much atmosphere… is there twice as many monitoring places above the oceans?!?! If not = it’s all misleading!

  9. 2011 disastermagnetic strom 2011solar flare 2012sun flare disaster…

    […]Hoodwinked by Berkeley Earth « Calder's Updates[…]…

  10. joemgn says:

    If you read Nir Shaviv’s blog post at http://www.sciencebits.com/WorstBEST , you’ll see that not only is Muller doing propaganda, he is also doing it without anything to substantiate it.

  11. Johnd32 says:

    Very interesting topic , appreciate it for posting . The friendship that can cease has never been real. by Saint Jerome.
    [Some stray characters removed. — Mod]

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