Worse than Ivan the Terrible


Predictions Revisited

Worse than Ivan the Terrible

The “balance of error” for a missile boat’s captain

Prompting this post is a recent report that Russian Akula-class hunter-killer submarines are stalking British Vanguard-class submarines carrying Trident nuclear missiles. It’s the sort of thing that happened routinely during the Cold War. Thomas Harding, defence editor of the Daily Telegraph, quotes a senior Royal Navy source as saying: “The Russians have been playing games with us, the Americans and French in the North Atlantic. We have put a lot of resources into protecting Trident because we cannot afford by any stretch to let the Russians learn the acoustic profile of one of our bombers as that would compromise the deterrent.”

Bombers, by the way, is Navy slang for missile-carrying boats.

The special problems of controlling them figured in one of the predictions of possible routes to nuclear war explored in 1979 by Peter Batty and me in our BBC-TV programme “Nuclear Nightmares”.

In the accompanying book of the same title I wrote:

… the submarine as the weapon of the last resort remains an important concept and an awkward problem in command and control because, by definition, the submarine ought logically to be able to launch its missiles without receipt of explicit orders.

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Who blew up Jerusalem?


Predictions Revisited

Who blew up Jerusalem?

A nightmare from the 1970s persists

US Assures Israel That Iran Threat Is Not Imminent” says a headline on a recent New York Times report, available here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/world/middleeast/20policy.html . It seems that US intelligence is saying, “Relax, Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon for a year or more.”

For 30 years since the producer Peter Batty and I explored the possible triggers of nuclear war, in our TV blockbuster Nuclear Nightmares: The Wars That Must Never Happen”, a truly depressing number of people have continued to play with fire, in the proliferation of bomb-making technology. The accompanying book, Nuclear Nightmares, quoted an anonymous American strategist calling proliferation “the least unlikely route to nuclear war”. And because Israel was known (in 1979) to have already made nuclear weapons at a plant in the Negev Desert, we set our story in the Middle East.

Each scenario in the programme culminated with a fictional survivor trying to make sense of what happened. Here’s the relevant extract as broadcast.

PRESENTER (Peter Ustinov) on a vantage point above Jerusalem: The holy city of Christians, Jews and Moslems – the order is strictly alphabetical. It has been the focal point for conflict for thousands of years. Jerusalem is at this time in Israeli hands. But you can look North towards the Soviet Union with its Moslem minorities and affiliations. East towards a patchwork of Moslem states, patient yet unforgiving. South towards Mecca, the power of religion and of oil. And West toward America, Israel’s powerful friend.

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Predictions revisited

The counterforce nightmare

or “All you have to say is Tripoli”

When in Prague Castle in April 2010 the US and Russian Presidents signed the latest Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), it stirred memories of how terrifying the world was 30 years ago, especially for folk in the know. From Hiroshima in 1945 till the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the fear of atomic death for all your little chickens and their dam was the curse of an otherwise cheerful age. But by the late 1970s, the risk had become hair-raising.

Minuteman intercontinental missile test-fired at Vandenberg AFB. USAF/DOD

Strategic instability” was the jargon term. As I wrote at the time, “The danger is not that either side is tempted in cold blood to make his strike, but that both are driven towards it by mutual fear. There may come a moment when, without any malice in your heart, you have frightened your opponent so badly you must hit him before he hits you. Nuclear deterrence becomes nuclear impulsion.”

Intercontinental missiles were getting so sophisticated and accurate that both the USA and Soviet Union had good reason to fear that the other could attempt a surprise counterforce strike against the nuclear weapons in their missile silos and bomber bases – in the hope of coming off less badly in the unrestrained war that would follow. If you thought that was happening, simple logic then said that you had to get your own missiles launched before they were “dug out”. Decision times were limited by the few minutes remaining between the detection and arrival of incoming warheads.

Nuclear Nightmares: The Wars That Must Never Happen”, BBC-TV 1979, was produced and directed by Peter Batty and written by Nigel Calder. Made at precisely that critical stage of the Cold War, and filmed with operational forces and in command bunkers across Europe and the USA, the documentary explored four possible routes to nuclear war. Each segment ended with a fictional survivor sitting in a fallout shelter and explaining what went wrong. The culminating scenario concerned an all-out nuclear exchange between the USA and the Soviet Union.

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